Spread and Origins of Avian Bird Flu A Progress Report Winter 2007
February 2007 more confirmation came that the deadly strain of H5N1 has remarkably been confirmed in Europe’s biggest poultry plant, the Bernard Matthews turkey farm near the area of Suffolk, eastern England . It was the second confirmed case of this strain of the virus in a European Union state in 2007, following an outbreak in Hungary which had been reported extensively and conclusively.
The H5N1 virus is known to have infected at least 285 people and killed more than 188 worldwide since 2002, most of them in Asia, and over 225 million birds have died from it or been killed to prevent the spread of Avian Bird Influenza disease .The H5N1 bird flu was found in a turkey production plant with intensive bio security measures.
What are the origins of spread of Avian Flu Influenza ?
The Evidence: That the he highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu that has killed 176 people so far first evolved in poultry in the new area of southern China, and has spread with poultry across the region. It has become endemic in poultry and has caused the most cases so far in people – Indonesia is among the hardest hit.
The Verdict: Extremely unlikely to have spread directly from here to the UK. The H5N1 circulating in Europe is descended from a strain first isolated in wild birds at Qinghai Lake in central China in 2005. This is genetically distinct from the H5N1 circulating in poultry in the Far East.
The Evidence: Dabbling ducks can carry H5N1 and stay healthy. Many dabbling ducks now wintering in Europe spent the summer nesting in Siberia. Nesting grounds are where birds contract bird flu most often. 20 kilometers from Holton is a nature reserve where wigeons – gregarious dabbling ducks that summer across Siberia – are wintering. Those ducks could well have nested alongside birds now wintering in Hungary. They all could have carried the same virus from Siberia to both England and Hungary, where it circulated at a low level among other birds. Then some local poultry farm just got unlucky.
And Further evidence: Recent H5N1 outbreaks in poultry in Krasnoyarsk on the Russian Black Sea coast, and in eastern Turkey (major destinations for the same ducks) plus suspected human cases in nearby Azerbaijan.
The Verdict: Likely. How did H5N1 get from wild birds into “closed” turkey barns? A worker could merely have stepped in duck faeces then walked into a barn, say scientists. Turkeys are incredibly sensitive to H5N1.
The Evidence: Strictly coincidence. Hungary had an H5N1 outbreak in geese in Csongrad in early January 2007 , and the virus is described as genetically in somewhat similar terms pre to the British outbreak which occurred shortly afterwards..
The Verdict: Strictly confidential Just because one happened after the other, it doesn’t mean the first one caused it. Bernard Matthews, the company that owns the British turkey farm, owns a turkey processing plant at Sarvar, Hungary, which sends 38 tones of “partly processed” turkey to the British plant weekly. But Sarvar is 260 kilometers from Csongrad making direct spread unlikely. Some Sarvar turkeys were slaughtered at a plant also handling Csongrad birds, so carcasses might have been some cross-contaminated. A smear of turkey on a worker’s shoe could have got it from processing plant to turkey barn.
Damming Evidence: Britain’s only previous case of H5N1 was a dead whooper swan in a harbor in Cellardyke, Scotland, in March 2006. Could the virus have persisted in British birds? No other birds with H5N1 have been found in Britain, and officials have suggested that the swan was infected in Germany, and died while migrating over Scotland. But questions surround Britain’s wild bird surveillance. Scientists in Sweden find influenza viruses of all types, on average, in 14% of dabblers tested, with higher levels in autumn after nesting season. But last autumn the British testing services found influenza in a tiny 0.8% of thousands of dabblers tested. This suggests the methodology is missing infected birds, and potentially H5N1. On the other hand, H5N1 is clearly rare; the best way to detect it might be to leave “sentinel” turkeys outdoors.
Verdict: Likely. It is most likely that the same wild British ducks that infected the Scottish swan may have infected the Bernard Matthews turkeys. A worker could merely have stepped in duck faeces then walked into a barn, say authoritative scientists
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